PERTANIKA JOURNAL OF TROPICAL AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE

Temporal distribution of forecasted wind speed is important to assess wind capacity for wind-related technology purposes. Regional wind energy estimation needs the development of wind pattern to monitor and forecast temporal wind behaviour. Temporal wind in Malaysia mainly depends on monsoonal factor that circulates yearly and each monsoon derives distinct character of wind. This paper aims to develop a model of wind speed pattern from historical wind speed data. Then, the model was used to forecast 5-years seasonal wind speed and identify temporal distribution. Wind speed model development and forecast was performed by identifying the best combination of wind speed seasonal component using Seasonal Auto-regressive and Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Thus, three distribution models, Lognormal, Weibull and Gamma models, were exploited to further observe consistency using Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. The best fit model to represent seasonal wind distribution in each monsoon season at Pulau Langkawi, Malaysia, is Log-normal distribution (0.04679-0.108).