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Predictability of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates in the Post-Crisis Era

Liew Khim Sen and Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

Pertanika Journal of Tropical Agricultural Science, Volume 11, Issue 1, March 2003

Keywords: Exchange rate, depreciation, ARIMA, ARFIMA, forecasting

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Five ASEAN currencies are investigated in an attempt to determine whether the post-crisis ASEAN exchange rates are more predictable by the US dollar or Japanese yen. Results suggest that prior to the 1997/1998 Financial Crisis, all exchange rates were better predicted by the US dollar as the base currency. The post-crisis Singapore exchange rate continues to be better predicted in US dollar. On the other hand, Japanese yen better predicted other post-crisis ASEAN exchange rates.

ISSN 1511-3701

e-ISSN 2231-8542

Article ID

JSSH-0159-2003

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